Abstract

The Russia–Ukraine war has disrupted global trade, energy markets, and supply chains, with serious implications for emerging economies. This study examines the conflict’s impact on India’s external sector using monthly data from February 2022 to December 2024. The analysis includes India’s imports from Russia, exports to Russia and Ukraine, global oil prices, exchange-rate movements, services exports and global trade conditions. Regression results show deterioration in India’s trade balance after the conflict began, driven mainly by a surge in discounted crude oil imports from Russia. Imports from Russia exert a strong negative effect on the trade balance, while exports to Russia and Ukraine remain limited and statistically insignificant. High multicollinearity among global variables suggests India’s external sector responded to interconnected global shocks rather than isolated factors. The findings demonstrate that geopolitical crises can reshape trade patterns through commodity price volatility, exchange-rate pressures, and changing bilateral relations. Although India gained short-term energy cost advantages, the study highlights longer-term risks from rising trade deficits and increased reliance on geopolitically sensitive partners, emphasizing diversification and resilience-oriented policy strategies.